CanSIA outlines bright forecast in Solar Vision 2025
By Anthony Capkun
The Canadian Solar Industries Association (CanSIA) outlined its “path for the future” entitled “Solar Vision 2025” at its annual conference, Solar Canada. “Solar Vision 2025” outlines growth projections for base, conservative and aggressive scenarios in the solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) sectors.
It shows the solar industry is set to grow and reach market competitiveness because it is, according to CanSIA, delivering on its commitment to reduce costs, and because solar power is “peak power that offsets some of the grid’s most expensive energy during high-demand periods”.
“By 2025, solar energy expects to be widely deployed throughout Canada, having already achieved market competitiveness and no longer needing government incentives,” said David Eisenbud, chair of CanSIA’s board. “By 2025, solar will be supporting more than 35,000 jobs and displacing 15 to 31 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per year, while providing a safer, cleaner environment for generations to come.”
“Governments throughout Canada need to continue working co-operatively toward common strategic goals for the country,” said Elizabeth McDonald, CanSIA president. “Government support will mean the difference between Canadian companies being the purveyors of new renewable energy technology or the residents of Canada simply becoming the buyers of someone else’s research and development efforts.”
“It is time to make solar mainstream and stay focused on making it market-competitive, faster,” said Eisenbud. “With the strong support and commitment of all levels of government and stakeholders, the solar industry can build on its success to date and ultimately become market competitive, which will help create a brighter energy picture for Canada.”
According to CanSIA, capital and project development costs are falling; PV project costs are forecast to drop by more than 50% by 2025 (from the current range of $300 to $410 per MWh) to a range of $146 to $200 per MWh. At peak demand times, CanSIA says the cost of solar PV and thermal is market competitive. The PV sector installed 62 MW-peak (MWp) in new annual capacity in 2009—up almost nine-fold over 2008. From 2000 to 2009, solar thermal expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 20% to about 260 MW from 20 MW. About 3000 jobs have been created to date; by 2025 the industry expects to support more than 35,000 jobs.
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