Welcome to the Zettabyte era – Cisco says Global internet Traffic to Quadruple by 2015
By Anthony Capkun
June 06, 2011 – Cisco predicts the number of network-connected devices will be more than 15 billion—twice the world’s population—by 2015. In the fifth annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2010-2015), the company also said the total amount of global internet traffic will quadruple by 2015 and reach 966 exabytes per year.
The projected increase of internet traffic between 2014 and 2015 alone is 200 exabytes, which is greater than the total amount of IP traffic generated globally in 2010. On the verge of reaching 1 zettabyte (a trillion gigabytes) by 2015, global IP traffic growth is driven by four primary factors:
1. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, connected appliances and other smart machines is driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2015, there will be nearly 15 billion network connections via devices—including machine-to-machine (m2m)—and more than two connections for each person on earth.
2. More internet users: By 2015, there will be nearly 3 billion internet users—more than 40% of the world’s projected population.
3. Faster broadband speed: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase four-fold, from 7 megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015. The average broadband speed has already doubled within the past year from 3.5 Mbps to 7 Mbps.
4. More video: By 2015, 1 million video minutes—the equivalent of 674 days—will traverse the internet every second.
The annual Cisco VNI Forecast was developed to estimate global internet protocol traffic growth and trends. Used by service providers, regulators and industry influencers, the forecast is based on in-depth analysis and modelling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst forecasts. Cisco validates its forecast, inputs and methodology with actual traffic data provided voluntarily by global service providers and consumers alike.
“The explosive growth in internet data traffic, especially video, creates an opportunity in the years ahead for optimizing and monetizing visual, virtual and mobile internet experiences,” said Suraj Shetty, VP of worldwide service provider marketing, Cisco.
• Global IP traffic is expected to reach 80.5 exabytes per month by 2015, up from approximately 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010.
• Average global IP traffic in 2015 will reach 245 terabytes per second, equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie (1.2 Mbps) simultaneously every day.
• By 2015, the Asia Pacific region will generate the most IP traffic (24.1 exabytes per month), surpassing last year’s leader, North America (22.3 exabytes per month), for the top spot.
• The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2010 – 2015) are the Middle East and Africa (which had a 52% compound annual growth rate, for an eight-fold growth), surpassing last year’s leader Latin America (48% CAGR, sevenfold growth).
• In 2010, PCs generated 97% of consumer internet traffic. This will fall to 87% by 2015, demonstrating the impact that devices like tablets, smartphones and connected TVs are having on how consumers access and use the internet.
• Accessing the internet on web-enabled TVs continues to grow and, by 2015, 10% of global consumer internet traffic and 18% of internet video traffic will be consumed via TVs.