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Lamp and luminaire revenues will start to decline by 2017

April 16, 2013 | By Anthony Capkun

April 16, 2013 – The rise of LED technology is affecting every part of the commercial lighting industry, says Navigant Research, as falling prices and improved quality drive widespread adoption.

According to a new report from Navigant, worldwide unit shipments of LED lamps will grow from 68 million in 2013 to 1.28 billion annually by 2021. It expects the markets for every other lighting technology will contract over that period.

Although shipments of LED products will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44.3% through 2021, the report indicates they will not be sufficient to compensate for the overall decline in commercial lighting revenue as the industry moves toward longer-lasting lamps. Lamp and luminaire revenue will both grow for the next few years, the study concludes, before beginning an inexorable decline in 2017.

“LED lighting has already begun to enter the commercial market in significant volume, and will grow rapidly over the remainder of the decade,” said Jesse Foote, research analyst at Navigant. “Specific applications, such as cold storage, have already seen widespread LED adoption, while spaces that are currently lit by efficient linear fluorescent lamps await further LED price declines.”


The report, “Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets”, examines the worldwide market for energy-efficient lighting in commercial buildings, including LED, fluorescent, halogen and high-intensity discharge lamps and luminaires. An Executive Summary is available for free on the Navigant’s website.

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